Humans aren’t very good at understanding probabilities, including election forecasts. Is there a way to improve that?
Sean Trende on RealClearPolitics :
The story of 2016 is not one of poll failure. It is a story of interpretive failure and a media environment that made it almost taboo to even suggest that Donald Trump had a real chance to win the election.
One related issue is how to represent election forecasts, i.e. probabilities. There’s a good proposition here: as a theatre. It shows that Donald Trump having a 28.6% chance of winning the election isn’t an unlikely outcome at all.